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What Apple should have announced at today’s announcement of iPhone OS 3.0

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Windows support.

That’s right, they should support Windows – for developers.

What Apple is doing with its App Store and the iPhone OS revisions is creating the market for developers who create and sell mobile apps… on Apple’s platform of course. Learning from the PC battles, they’ve quite obviously focused on the idea that more apps = more ways to meet consumer needs and therefore, it should result in more revenue for Apple from their primary customers: Consumers.

Given that dynamic, it makes very little sense that only those with Apple machines (and yes, some folks on Unix/Linux..) can develop iPhone applications. Since the predominant operating system is Windows, doesn’t it make sense that you should support all of the developers who are on Windows? (I know, I know, since when does Apple make sense to anyone but themselves?)

In all of the blogs and reporting covering the lead-up to today’s announcement, I’ve been pretty shocked that this issue hasn’t been turned into a larger piece of the conversation. Apple’s addressable developer market is MUCH smaller than it could be. Ultimately, the other players in the market are all going to be competing for developers alongside Apple.  Although Apple’s device and platform might be much better, if they’re not supporting Windows developers, they won’t be tapping into the largest pool of developers.

What’s really interesting about this glaring lack of Windows support is how easily we can draw parallels between this situation and previous Apple products and their associated growth. If we just pull up the unit sales charts for the iPod and for Mac computers over the past several years we can point to inflection points that coincided with providing support for Windows.

Here, take a look at the iPod sales chart:

Chart of iPod unit sales

On October 16, 2003, Apple announced the release of iTunes for Windows, which meant that Windows PC owners could now purchase and manage their iPods (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2003/oct/16itms.html).  I’ve highlighted that quarter above and while I won’t say it was the ONLY thing that led to a change in the iPod’s sales trajectory, it certainly would appear to have coincided with a new sales trend. Up until that point in time, the iPod was really just a blip on the MP3 market radar.

Next, let’s take a look at the sale of Mac Computers:

During the first week of April, 2006, Apple announced that it would release a piece of software it called “Bootcamp” on its Intel-powered computers. Bootcamp was meant to enable the use of Microsoft Windows on Macs, a pretty wild idea at the time. I decided to purchase some Apple stock, based on that announcement, hypothesizing that it would increase the addressable market for Apple computers and boost their sales. Taking a look at the absolute growth in units sold, that hypothesis has been proven out nicely ☺ (note, I no longer own that stock).


I want to be clear:
I don’t think it’s fair to attribute either iPod or Mac sales growth solely to Windows-related accessibility. Instead, I’d like to suggest that being accessible via Windows is clearly beneficial and could prove to be transformative to Apple’s ultimate goal: iPhone and iPhone-related sales.

As an investor, an iPhone owner and someone who’s working on mobile app development, I look forward to the day when Apple looks at these realities and agrees with me :-) .

Popularity: 100% [?]

Written by Robi Ganguly

March 17th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

  • I shudder to think what a godawful shit-storm the App store would look like if everyone out there with a PC were able to publish their own crappy $.99 farting, beer-drinking, lightsaber app. As a person who works at a large publisher that is canceling premium-quality iPhone apps as recently as today, due to the irreversibly broken economics that Apple has created on the App store, I tell you that you would be well-advised not to sit around waiting for them to start making decisions that seem to make sense.
  • Apple didn't break the economics. cream will always rise. your argument seems to be based on the common but fallacious assertion that Apple's store is the only way people can discover great apps. it isn't. spend some marketing dollars outside Apple's store - or get lucky enough for Apple to hype you on primetime TV - and you should have no problem making money on compelling $5+ apps. just because you don't think you can make a million bucks in a month doesn't mean it isn't worth trying at all.
  • HAHAHAHHA well, for starters, it would be that anyone who is a developer on a Windows machine could now play with the SDK. It's not like this stuff is just magically easy to create, there's still code involved ;).

    But yes, another area for discussion here is the economics of the App Store. With this post I was just trying to hit on the accessibility of programming for the device, I'll see if I can get a post together on the economics of the App Store soon.

    Thanks for the comment Ben!
  • Happy to contribute to that post if you'd like :)
  • Abby
    Well put cuz, well put :-) I hope your mobile app development is coming along!

    (I like your blog, you should start blogging more again! I have started a blog, too! But it's more of a food blog. Maybe my food blog and your technical blog should start hanging out...)
  • Thanks Abby! Much appreciated. I'll try to get back in the groove on this thing, I've definitely been neglecting it. What's your blog's address?
  • interesting idea and agree it's surprising this hasn't gotten wider coverage, but keeping the IDE Mac only sells more Macs, displays, peripherals, etc. end of story.

    also, getting more developers isn't as important as catering to the best developers. <insert favorite="" macs="" rule,="" sucks="" truism="" windows="">.</insert>
  • Sure, they do sell more Macs to developers, but that's really just a drop in the revenue bucket, nothing super meaningful there.

    As far as the developer argument goes, I suppose one could assume that only the BEST developers develop for Macs but I'm pretty sure that in addition to Microsoft, companies like Google, Yahoo, IBM, Oracle etc would all argue that they have some extraordinary talent on Windows machines. Not to mention the fact that Apple has NEVER been a true computer science shop..
  • based on what data can you argue that Mac and peripheral sales to developers is a drop in the bucket? maybe not a top-line driver for AAPL, but it's got to be several tens of millions of dollars in revenue.

    thinking about this more, the cost of a couple Macs isn't enough to dissuade anyone except the absolute poorest hobby-only developer from creating apps for iPhone. as long as the market is large and profitable (check) and the tools/process is relatively friction-free (check).

    also, I didn't read your original argument to have anything to do with persuading Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Oracle - who btw have all already created their own iPhone apps.
  • Well, actually, that math doesn't work - several 10s of millions of
    dollars on ASPs of ~$2,000 means that 10,000 or more of the developers
    in the ecosystem are buying new machines from Apple. Based on the
    estimated number of developers right now, that would be a hugely
    surprising statistic.

    As far as the cost of a couple Macs being enough to dissuade people, I
    think that you're overlooking the core of the argument, which is about
    increasing friction to your potential market: developers. For a
    Windows-based developer, you have to get a Mac (or two, as you imply),
    plus get up to speed on how it works, plus learn the way the nuances
    of the code you're working with, plus deal with the application
    process etc etc. No, it's not insurmountable, but the fact is, there
    is a LOT of friction in the way for the largest market of developers.

    Finally, the point about MSFT/GOOG etc was not persuading THEM. It was
    that they would disagree with any arguments about Mac developers being
    superior to Windows-based devs.

    Good discussion, as usual. I think I should get cracking on a post I
    want to make about the economics of the app store :)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Robi Ganguly
    Blog: http://robiganguly.com/blog
    Mobile: 415.939.7143
  • I didn't do the math so you may be right, but just to be clear I consider the iPhone ecosystem to consist of all Mac + iPhone developers since the API set and programming model is substantially the same. that's a lot more than 10,000 developers, no?

    oh, and porting the iPhone tools/SDK to Windows doesn't make Cocoa Touch and Objective-C any more approachable to Windows developers. and creating different Windows-friendly tools doesn't seem like a useful strategy. Nokia sells more than 100M S60 phones a year and supports an astounding number of desktop platforms, IDEs and programming languages - but certainly hasn't achieved the economies of scale that investment might suggest.

    agree good discussion and props for raising this idea which has gotten almost no coverage elsewhere.
  • Good points..

    I'm looking forward to the day when 1 of 2 things happens. 1) A mobile app standard is put forth, adopted, and supported by the industry to ease, or make porting of applications automatic from platform to platform. Or 2) Portability of applications becomes easy. The iPhone is a brilliant device, but won't be the Jesus phone forever. Developers should (and can) speak up for cross platform standards for all mobile apps so that once another killer device hits the market, applications are easily ported.
  • very unlikely to happen. too many deep-pocketed platform vendors and OEMs that don't want to play in anyone else's sandbox.

    but if something like this were to happen, it would be driven by operators vs. some quasi-objective standards body. and I'm not sure that's a good thing for developers or consumers.

    also, see J2ME.
  • I disagree. Look at what is happening with W3C. And IE8's release. Increased standards compliance. No, it's not perfect but the market told MS to fix it, and it did (or at least had made some major improvements).

    The mobile phone is the next dominant platform and there will be standards to support it. I think it's inevitable. You heard it here first (maybe not).
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